Die Kriterien fuer "Confirmed Case" legen nicht Aerzte fest, sondern Buerokraten in Peking

CalBaer, Dienstag, 11.02.2020, 01:01 (vor 1539 Tagen) @ Jacques3687 Views
bearbeitet von CalBaer, Dienstag, 11.02.2020, 01:41

Bis zum 18. Januar galten drei Kriterien, um mit einer Coronavirus-Infektion diagnostiziert zu werden: Besuch des South China Seafood Markets, Fieber und positives Testergebnis:

You had to have had exposure to the South China Seafood Market, you needed to have had a fever and test positive for the virus. You had to meet all three criteria in order to be diagnosed. The third one was especially stringent. In reality, very few people were able to test for a virus.

Das war den Aerzten natuerlich viel zu gefaehrlich, sie bestanden erfolgreich auf Aufweichung der Kriterien. Positiver Test allein reichte dann aus, um als bestaetigter Fall zu gelten. Ein Unding, dass dies davor nicht so war.

On Jan 18, the high-level specialists from the National Health Commission came to Wuhan, to South Central Hospital to inspect. I told them again that the criteria were too high. This way it was easy to miss infections. I told them this was infectious; if you made the criteria too high and let patients go, you're putting society in danger. After the second national team of specialists came, the criteria were changed. The number of diagnosed patients rose quickly.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor

Am 17.01.2020 gab es bereits 62 bestaetigte Faelle, auf die allerdings alle drei Kriterien zutreffen mussten. Am 18.01.2020 stiegen die bestaetigte Faelle sprunghaft an.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbrea...

Erst am 23.01.2020 wurde Wuhan unter Quarantaene gesetzt, aber bis dahin waren nach Aussage ihres Buergermeisters schon 5 Millionen aus Wuhan gefluechtet.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/803766743/critics-say-china-has-su...
https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1

Darunter koennen viele mit dem Coronavirus Infizierte gewesen sein, die wegen der harten Kriterien bis zu, 18.01.2020 nicht als infiziert galten.

Britische Wissenschaftler haben nach Auswerkung von Handy- und Flugdaten herausgefunden, dass von den 5 Millionen aus Wuhan gefluechteten Menschen 60.000, darunter 834 Infizierte ins Ausland ausgereist sind.

It revealed an estimated 59,912 air passengers — including 834 infected with 2019-nCoV — flew from Wuhan to no less than 382 cities outside of mainland China in the days leading up to January 23, when the city was placed in quarantine.

Die stehen natuerlich nicht unter Quarantaene, wie die heimgeholten Staatsbuerger der jeweiligen Laender.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307485
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/new-map-reveals-no-country-safe-from-coronavir...
https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/01/corona-virus.page

Results: The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the
latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New
Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other
megacities in China, and a high proportion of cases likely travelled with
symptoms at the early stage of the outbreak. Should secondary outbreaks
occur in 17 high-risk secondary cities, they could contribute to seeding the
virus in other highly connected cities within and beyond China after the LNY
holiday. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 -
1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of
mainland China during the two weeks prior to Wuhan’s lockdown.
The majority
of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia
were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted
importation risks and reported cases seen. Because significant spread has
already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the
scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be
screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe
for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit
spread beyond its current extent.
Conclusion: Further spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international
exportation is likely to occur.
All countries, especially vulnerable regions,
should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479v1.full.pdf

Also, langsam wird mir doch etwas mulmig...

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