Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model

First published: 13 November 2023

After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3-03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442