Die Preise sollen in den heißesten Märkten, Sydney und Perth, um bis zu 40% fallen.
"A report from the Ballina Advocate in Australia. â€œAustralia is facing a â€˜debt crisisâ€™ - and the property market and our entire economy are at risk as a result. Thatâ€™s according to the sobering 60 Minutes segment Bricks and Slaughter which aired last night, revealing the countryâ€™s property downturn was just the tip of the iceberg. According to reporter Tom Steinfort, the current slump is actually â€˜more like falling off a cliff,â€™ with a number of real estate and finance experts claiming houses could plummet in value by up to 40 per cent in the next 12 months.â€
â€œMr Steinfort spoke with data scientist Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics, who said Australia was uniquely vulnerable when it came to an economic crash tied to a property downturn. â€˜At the worst end of the spectrum, if everything turns against us we could see property prices 40-45 per cent down from their peaks, which is a huge deal,â€™ he said. Thereâ€™s $1.7 trillion held by the banks in mortgages for owner-occupies and investors. And thatâ€™s about 65 per cent of their total lending. Thatâ€™s higher than any other country in the Western world by a long way. We are uniquely exposed at the moment.â€™â€
â€œMr North said Australia was now in the same position as the US was back in 2006 and 2007 - a position which triggered an economic collapse. â€˜As a society, and as a government, and as a regulatory system, weâ€™re all banking on the home price engine that just goes on giving and giving and giving. Itâ€™s not going to,â€™ he said. â€˜Weâ€™ve got a debt bomb, weâ€™ve got a debt crisis and at some point itâ€™s going to explode in our face.â€™â€ "
Das war auch schon beim Platzen der Amiblase 2008-2011 so. Hätte man damals 6 kg Gold genommen und für 40000 EUR das Kilo verkauft, hätte man gut ein San Diego Apartment mit 100 mÂ² für 300000 USD kaufen können, was jetzt, fast 10 Jahre später, mehr als das 3-fache wert ist.
Gut, hätte man in Tech-Aktien oder auch Financials investiert, hätte man 10x oder 20x holen können.
Und diesmal sind die Zinsen schon bei Null. Welche Bazooka werden die Zentralbanken diesmal rausholen? Helikoptergeld, literally? Weimar ahead?