Tax Evasion and Inequality
Annette Alstadsæter (Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
Niels Johannesen (University of Copenhagen)
Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley and NBER)
May 28, 2017
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/AJZ2017.pdf

Der Hang zur Steuerhinterziehung nimmt mit der Höhe des Vermögens zu.
(Hintergrund Zucman war Piketty Student.)

Abstract:

This paper attempts to estimate the size and distribution of tax evasion in rich countries.
We combine stratified random audits—the key source used to study tax evasion
so far—with new micro-data leaked from two large offshore financial institutions, HSBC
Switzerland (“Swiss leaks”) and Mossack Fonseca (“Panama Papers”). We match these
data to population-wide wealth records in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. We find that
tax evasion rises sharply with wealth, a phenomenon that random audits fail to capture.
On average about 3% of personal taxes are evaded in Scandinavia, but this figure rises to
about 30% in the top 0.01% of the wealth distribution, a group that includes households
with more than $40 million in net wealth. A simple model of the supply of tax evasion
services can explain why evasion rises steeply with wealth. Taking tax evasion into account
increases the rise in inequality seen in tax data since the 1970s markedly, highlighting the
need to move beyond tax data to capture income and wealth at the top, even in countries
where tax compliance is generally high. We also find that after reducing tax evasion—by
using tax amnesties—tax evaders do not legally avoid taxes more. This result suggests
that fighting tax evasion can be an effective way to collect more tax revenue from the
ultra-wealthy.