- Wird die zweite Welle noch gewaltiger? - SUCRAM, 26.11.2007, 19:17
- Re: The Labor Department estimates almost 100,000 financial services jobs - Emerald, 26.11.2007, 19:34
Wird die zweite Welle noch gewaltiger?
Die Stimmen mehren sich, dass die zweite Welle der Finanzkrisis ansteht, die darueberhinaus sich von der ersteren in Tiefe und Wucht abheben koennte, auf beiden Seiten des grossen Teiches.
Dazu einige Stimmen aus den USA vom Wochenende. Am Ende der Original-Link. P.S. ich weiss, dass jeder lesen kann und dass das alles nicht neu ist, aber man kann es nicht of genug aufzeigen (Anmerk. von mir in Klammern)
The worst-case scenario is anyone's guess, but some believe it could become very bad. (Vielleicht ist der Worst-Case imme noch der Best-case?)
"We haven't faced a downturn like this since the Depression," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund.
"Its effect on consumption, its effect on future lending attitudes, could bring us close to the zero line in terms of economic growth," he said. "It does keep me up at night." (Wette, dass er nicht als Einziger dort jetzt schlaflose Naechte hat...)
Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. (2008 -- the magical year?)
The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California, Nevada and Florida.
Builders like Chicago's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. (Na schlaegt's richtig durch auf die"Realen")
The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year.
The Labor Department estimates almost 100,000 financial services jobs related to credit and lending in the U.S. have already been lost, from local bank loan officers to traders dealing in mortgage-backed securities. Thousands of Americans who work in the housing industry could find themselves on the dole. And there's no telling how that would affect car dealers, retailers and others dependent on consumer paychecks.
Based on historical models, zero growth in the U.S. gross domestic product would take the current unemployment rate to 6.4 percent.
There is increasing evidence that another downturn has begun. (Die zweite Welle!)
Borrowers who took out loans in the first six months of this year are already falling behind on their payments faster than those who took out loans in 2006, according to a report from Arlington, Va.-based investment bank Friedman, Billings Ramsey.
Such data suggests more Americans could lose their homes than ever before, and those in peril are people who never thought they'd welsh on a mortgage payment. They come from a broad swath _ teachers, pharmacists, and civil servants who were lured by enticing mortgage terms.
"It's been said a lot of people have been using their homes as ATM machines," said Thomas Lawler, a former official at mortgage lender Fannie Mae who is now a private housing and finance consultant."The risk has a lot of tentacles." (Kluger Bursche, hat sich rechtzeitig abgesetzt...)
A subprime adjustable-rate mortgage on a $400,000 home could have payments of about $2,200 a month, with borrowers paying 6.5 percent, interest only. When the teaser period expires, that payment becomes $4,000, with the homeowner paying 12 percent and now having to come up with principal as well as interest.
"It's not just me, it's a lot of people I know. The housing market in the Twin Cities has dramatically changed for the worse in the years since I purchased my home. Now we're just looking for a solution," he said.
"But many people in my neighborhood didn't get help, and some have literally just walked away from their homes," said Colombo."There are over 133,000 homes on the market in Broward-Miami-Dade counties, and some of them were actually abandoned. People in this situation don't like to talk about it, and end up getting hurt because they don't." (Wurde frueher hier im Forum schonmal angesprochen, dass Leute mit festem Job nicht einfach die Flucht ergreifen koennen und werden..oder doch?)
There's more pain left for Wall Street:"We're nowhere close to the end of the collapse," said Mark Patterson, chairman and co-founder of MatlinPatterson Global Advisors, a hedge fund that specializes in distressed funds.
The subprime wreckage could dwarf the nation's last big banking crisis _ the failure of more than 1,000 savings and loans in the 1980s. The biggest difference is that problems with S&Ls were largely contained, and the government was able to rescue them through a $125 billion bailout.
"What really makes this a doomsday scenario is where would you even start with a bailout?" housing consultant Lawler asked.
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a key member of Senate finance and banking committees, said borrowers are the ones who need relief. The playbook to bail out the economy would not be applied to the banks and mortgage originators, but money could be funneled through non-profit organizations to homeowners that need help, he said in an interview with The Associated Press.
(Also ist die Sozialisation dieser privaten Verluste schon in Planung...)
"We all know that more hits from these subprime loans are coming, but are having a devil of a time figuring out how it will happen or how to stop it," said Lawler, who was once chief economist for Fannie Mae.
"We've never been in this situation before."
(Ohne weiteren Kommentar und auf Wiedersehen)